No, I don't think it will fail.
No, I don't think it will fail.
I believe after more than three years of waiting, this game might not succeed. Past events with much excitement rarely deliver anything comparable, even if big promises were made, we still likely won’t be fully satisfied.
just a quick note, folks are probably debating which game they’re on. Honestly, we’re still figuring it out. I’m confident CIG will deliver on their promises eventually. Also, if you spent a bit of time checking the threads here, you’d notice this topic is super popular.
NMS was released despite not meeting expectations. I’d prefer a delayed launch for a more polished experience, especially given the extensive scope of star citizen. It’s understandable how disappointed fans felt when it didn’t live up to the hype, and many would be even more upset if it evolved into NMS v2.
3.0 was launched roughly a month ago. It's currently active, though it remains quite unstable—just like all previous .0 SC updates. Expect improvements over the next few months. If you approach it expecting a finished product, you might be let down. What many overlook is that they're not purchasing a ready-made item; they're investing in an ongoing crowdfunding effort that's still evolving, and they're getting to test its early version as part of the process.
Will it succeed? I don’t believe so. Development shows steady advancement each week. They recently shifted to quarterly major updates to keep the release cadence tighter. A full launch is likely another year away—Alpha 4.0 will debut when they expand into new solar systems. After three years? That’s a long time. Typically, AAA studios take 3 to 5 years for a standard large-scale AAA title. This project stands apart in many ways. While Elite might come close, it’s quite different overall. The perception of failure often stems from unfamiliarity with the behind-the-scenes work of a big-scale game. Usually, AAA developers keep silent until about a year before launch, offering no details. Here, they actually built their own engine and made significant tweaks to CryEngine to achieve their vision. As a supporter, I only invested around $40. I’m content with the effort. If it doesn’t come out? That would be disappointing—but I’d appreciate the attempt. Also, some critics are concerned about in-game purchases like ships and other items. Most players overlook that these are optional. Inside the game, you’ll earn “credits” through quests, trading, missions, etc., which you can use to buy ships. After paying the initial cost, you can enjoy the game without further spending (excluding any future DLC).
I reviewed the conversation around it, and it looks like it won’t fail. Its success relies heavily on audience support, so they’ll continue producing it as long as they’re compensated.
Some critics claim they plan to never officially launch the game, aiming to earn continuous income through crowdfunding. However, this approach seems unreasonable since completing and releasing it could generate significantly more revenue, boost sales of in-game purchases, and expand the player base. Additionally, there’s potential to develop and sell post-launch content (DLC) for extra profits. Staying consistently active in early access doesn’t align well with having the means to finish the project.
Some people are donating thousands of dollars in one go. Many people buy the 45 dollar ship, then buy the few hundred dollar ship. They already have DLC . Micro transactions. They may release the squadron 42 maybe, but they asked "Should we release this now" and the people funding the game, and paying for it said no, just keep developing it. So they're still getting huge donations. I don't believe they'll get more money. I think they'll get some initial people. As long as they say "We're still working on it" customers will say "We're still funding it." People want the game to succeed in features, so they're making it succeed in money. There's no reason to ever release it because you can always add a feature to a future space ship MMO game. Look at world of warcraft. about 20+ years in the making, and they're still releasing DLC, HOWEVER they're also getting subscribers. Yes the company may say "Okay, it's released but we're going to implement more features indefinitely" but saying "Pre-release build" exempts them from any flaws, bugs crashes and whatnot that will indefinitely occur. They already have their core audience, and know their core audience well. Eve has it's audience, and they pour money into that company. If Star citizen tries to get more people in by releasing the game, it can alienate their core audience funding the game by saying "Okay it's done." Core audience could say "No, it's not. You betrayed us. I'm leaving." The same thing occurred with the Star Wars MMO when it took 5 years for the first person to become a Jedi. They simplified the entire game alienating their entire core audience keeping the company afloat. Then the new players didn't really stick around. It is too risky from a business standpoint to take such a drastic turn. They already asked their audience. They don't want it released. Yes some 10% or less said "yeah, it's basically done" others said idk, but 60+ % said "Keep developing." That's the majority of your user-base. You give them something they'll pay for, or you'll lose your funding. To compare again to the star wars MMO, they tried to bring in a new audience by adding the Jedi class, and making it simpler. ... Sorry I'm just repeating myself. You just have to add more things the core audience wants. For world of warcraft you can now instant any level if you pay. Yeah, some people are pissed, but the core audience doesn't care, and it helps fund the company. Blizzard is intending to release a Vanilla 1.0 world of warcraft, BUT it's entirely separate from the new World of Warcraft Legion and whatnot. This doesn't alienate the core audience embracing the new features they love, but brings in a new audience. Star Citizen cannot release-at least not for many years. (Likely when the game becomes unpopular, or the company tanks) or just never will. If anything, Squadron 42 May release, but there's issues with licensing as they have a license for only 1 game, and they're making 2 so who knows. EDIT: In conclusion, yes, they can get paid forever by consumers donating thousands of dollars to make the game a reality. That is stupid, but the gamble of more money, is likely not more money. In a full release, they won't get continued funding, only initial money unless they go to a subscription which could alienate the core audience. People already donate as if a subscription, so it's basically an optional subscription that keeps it going. They already have DLC in the form of ships. 1 or more is over 1 thousand USD . around $750 from what I found as of 23 January 2018. It doesn't make sense from a consumer stand point, but for a business, as long as they're positive in the profits, there is no reason to ever change. This is a metaphore: Ask anyone with a desk job when the last time they got an upgrade from their company was. How many are still running unsupported XP, if not older Operating systems? Same concept. No reason to change if it works, and makes money.
I don’t have access to external sources or the ability to verify references beyond what’s provided here. The information you shared appears to be based on opinions and concerns expressed in the text, not a documented source.